The season for selections has just ended. Like the transfer market in the English Premiership, some much anticipated moves did not happen, some made us laugh and others simply defied understanding.
By the January 31st deadline set by INEC for the submission of candidates’ names, the much expected collaborations had not taken place while the most definitive ticket was from the ruling PDP of President Goodluck Jonathan and Vice President Namadi Sambo.Suddenly but not so much well kept secret, the candidate seen as the most likely challenger, General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd) came up with Pastor Tunde Bakare, a Christian leader from the South West.
ANPP’s Gov Ibrahim Shekarau chose a former state governor John Oyegun from the South South zone. We are not aware of the choice made by Mallam Nuhu Ribadu of the ACN as running mate.
With the CPC (Gen. Buhari), ACN (Mallam Nuhu Ribadu) and the ANPP (Gov Ibrahim Shekarau) seen as the most viable challengers to the PDP grip on Nigeria, much was made of a possible coalition of the opposition and the fielding of a unified candidate to challenge the sitting government.
As at deadline day, none of the expectations of alliances and collaborations had been met.
A failure to reach an agreement of sorts put a dampner on the excitement that was building up amongst observers who really looked forward to an exciting battle and a possible wresting of power from the PDP.
However, there is another important date to look forward to. February 21st 2011 remains the last and final date for parties to confirm their nominations or change their candidates. One day is too long in Nigerian politics. Anything can yet happen but have the opposition lost the momentum gained to this point? Will the electorate see any future changes before and up to the 21st of February as a sincere and significant movement towards genuine desire for change?
We are apt to getting cynical with regards to anything government and politics in Nigeria. Sincerity of purpose is usually questioned and we cast doubts on the personal intentions and integrity of individuals who seek political office. Do not blame the people, they have been battered and beaten black and blue with a loss of a sense of hope.
Given the present setting and pairings of the Presidential tickets today, word on the street seems to agree that a smooth ride to the Presidential Villa is laid out for the incumbent ticket of President Jonathan and Vice President Sambo.
Let’s look at the possible reasons why.
When we consider individual personalities for the Presidency and based on individual achievement, stature, experience and political followership at grassroots level, General Buhari stands out.
When we look at dominant political machinery and influence across the nation, the incumbent pair of Jonathan/Sambo remains far and away the strongest looking.
When we look at the future, hope nd the romanticized view of generational change, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu and the ACN stand head and shoulders above the rest.
None of these in itself can win the elections without a combination of factors.
Firstly, the divides that make up Nigeria tend to play in the decisions made by parts of the country to go one way or the other. There is the tendency for block voting to be based on having a horse in the race.
Jonathan/Sambo will take the South-South block without breaking sweat. If for nothing else, the people of the South-South are simply glad to have a major player at the centre.
The Buhari/Bakare pair will take the bulk of the North on the strength of Gen Buhari’s popularity bar a split in states like Borno and Kano (ANPP) and the unpredictable North Central zone.
The Ribadu/ACN team should comfortably hold the South-West with the backing of the ACN in Lagos, Edo, Ekiti and Osun States whilst denting the PDP’s fragile hold on Ogun and Oyo States.
The Shekarau/Oyegun pair can only be seen to make an impression in Kano (where Shekarau comes from) and Borno (where ANPP has held fort) states. Both candidates in this pairing ar not seen as national stalwarts across the country.
The PDP without doubt has the largest and most influential network of party structures. It is a known fact that whilst many may not be satisfied with the state of the federation and many others desire change, the perceived weaknesses of the other parties as national institutions lends a free passage to the PDP to repeat its wins of the last few elections.
The point is, it will not be down to the success of the PDP government of the last 12 years or the expectations of better things to come from the PDP that will make the party win the April elections.
A combination of factors will ensure a PDP win as a combination of factors can be the only way they can be prevented from continuing in power.
The failure of the opposition to mount any serious challenge by presenting a strong combination of strategically nominated individuals that all will stand by, is the major reason a PDP repeat will occur.
We must remember that for a Presidential win, a ticket simply requires 2/3rds of the national spread across a number of geo-political zones. One or possibly two geo-political zones will be rendered useless in the upcoming equation and resigned to the wilderness of political appointments in the next administration. A few crumbs here and there and they will wait their ‘turn’.
The ACN is the largest single opposition party today. With the party sits the main ace everyone else needs to align with to challenge the PDP successfully.
The ACN on its own cannot win the Presidential Elections. The party does not have the national spread and recognition required in the short timeframe and particularly in the populous North.
The romantic popularity of Mallam Nuhu Ribadu or any younger aspirant remains just that, a romantic view at a time that Nigeria is not yet sophisticated enough to buy into the quest for youthful change. A journey, in my opinion that started too late in the day.
Much of Ribadu’s support and advocates reside outside the country, with no vote, and may or may not register to vote or even bother to vote on the day. Nuhu Ribadu himself is yet to be considered a political heavyweight. In 2015 maybe but I do not see it happening right now except by imposition. ACN needs somebody.
The CPC and General Buhari may well make a huge impression in the North but suffers the same problems in the South as the ACN suffers in the North. Pastor Bakare will suffer from the failings and ridicule of previous attempts at leadership by men of the Church.
We are a very doubting society and expose our candidates to all forms of ridicule particularly when they claim to have their direction or mandates from God. More importantly, a Vice Presidential candidate from the South-West so soon after the 8 years of an Obasanjo tenure is a hard sell to a grossly ethnically suspicious country.
Buhari needs to go South-East with the backing of the ACN in the South-West. The South-East is the biggest loser in all of this so far and need a powerful horse in this race. CPC and General Buhari need somebody.
All this leaves us with a rush to the 21st of February 2011. It is very likely that, apart from the Jonathan/Sambo ticket, some alliances will be forged and names on tickets will change.
For now we have Stalking Horses, Red Herrings and a scramble for importance in any mergers that are likely to occur in the next couple of weeks.
Short of a combined effort by the opposition with only a couple of moths left and assisted by an aggressive campaign heavily financed, the victory podium is easy to see come May 2011. We will have parties hold pockets of the country and if we were parliamentarian, maybe a hung parliament like in the UK today.
It will be the PDP all over again and those who do not like it can go find a resort somewhere off the coast of Indonesia to lay their sore heads.
What do you think?
