I have been incessantly asked to predict the outcome of the upcoming presidential Elections of 16th April 2011 in Nigeria. I am not sure why so many think my opinion counts but here goes.
At the end of the count, there will be a result. I do not think there will be a run-off. I think President Goodluck Jonathan will be declared winner.Elections in Nigeria, history has shown, must be viewed and analysed in the context of the numerous dynamics within the electoral and electioneering process.
Like many things Nigerian, there is substance and then there are the peripheral histrionics constantly raising the passions, tensions and anxieties of the population. Strip the scenario of the histrionics and what you have is a study in diversity of people and a nation.
My take is that, and I have always tried to beat it into the heads of any who would listen, elections in Nigeria and rarely free and fair. There is yet to be a level playing field where manifestos, intellect, capacity and track-records are open to be considered and voted upon.
Incumbency in Nigeria provides an advantage. An incumbent is 50% of the way to winning an election. This percentage is a combination of strong institutional armies at the disposal of an incumbent. These armies play critical roles in the eventual outcome of any elections in Nigeria.
If you were positioned to control the leadership of the Security Forces, the Protection forces, the Judiciary, the Electoral Body and had at your disposal the keys to the treasury, federal or State, it is difficult to lose an election in Nigeria.
Beyond the 50% advantage are varying percentage increases in popularity, manifestoes, electoral promises, regional support, tribalism, religion or track record.
These may vary to add a further 2%, 10%, 25% etc to an incumbent’s chances of winning an election.
What any opposition contender faces is an uphill task. Going by the results of the recently concluded elections into the federal houses of Assembly, Senate and House of Reps, the power of a sitting government and ruling party is clearly evident.
Beyond the preceding arguments of a rotational North/South Presidency, the final picture shows what electioneering in Nigeria is all about. The ruling PDP, though given a fright, will still have the largest representation in both houses of the Senate and the House of Reps.
The Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN, have made their point. They are the party to deal with in the South West of Nigeria. With a few newer inroads into some other parts of the country, a few surprising places too I dare add, it is almost a mission accomplished for the ACN in this year’s General Elections.
The Congress for Progressive Change, CPC, raised a lot of hope for a competitive challenge to the PDP in the north. This did not materialize as expected for a few spots of success here and there.
The elections into the federal houses were the true test of the party strengths for all the political parties. Some got stronger, others got weaker while some never got dressed for the ball.
This is why President Goodluck Jonathan will win.
The President has a head start provided by the seat he occupies. A reflection of the willingness of many, coerced or willingly, to flood the news media with messages of support and endorsements, drowning anything the opposition candidates can muster, is a sign of the outcome we shall see.
This election, like many before, will not be about the best man winning or losing. It will be about the capacity of parties to strategise with eyes open to the glaring realities of the Nigerian dynamics.
It takes an awful lot of money to run for office in Nigeria. Intellectual, advanced, modern or not, the larger population look to your pocket before they can see your face.
The money is spread across various platforms and in many forms especially cash.
In an age where the world has gone electronic in the supersonic, a bag of rice strikes home further than an barrage of emails and social networking messages full or articulate and well-presented propositions in clear distinct and understandable language.
President Jonathan wins because, firstly, he sits as President. Secondly, there is an entire region bent on staying in the position of power for at least the next four years. Thirdly, there are the current and future beneficiaries of a Jonathan government as there would be with any person holding the seat at a moment in time. They have endless resources, particularly financial, to support their desire to hold on to relevance. It is a no-brainer for them.
President Jonathan, like any sitting executive, has also had the advantage of being able to point to achievements in the short period he has been on the seat. Any incumbent is capable of doing the same and the measure of such achievements is highly subjective to any observer.
The opposition candidates can only hope that their promises will hold greater sway with the people.
For an incumbent executive challenging the President in this contest, whatever achievements they put forward will be lesser than the President’s on a simple measure of scale. One is Federal and the other is State or Regional.
The President has been further greatly helped by the inability of the opposition to come together early enough for there to be any significant impact of their challenge. It takes a longer time for alliances to form and be understood by the people and work for members of the alliance.
Talks of alliances and mergers are so late in the day, the President can go to bed and sleep easy.
Rather than present a formidable alliance early enough in the game, the opposition have succeeded in watering down the potential challenges to be posed by the individual candidates who represent the opposition parties in this contest.
It remains befuddling how we in Nigeria fail to plan early for anything. The one thing the opposition do by way of alliances, with barely 48 hours to go, will only create confusion in the minds of the electorate come Saturday.
In its upheaval, the PDP has remained solid in its structure and stature. Given the opportunity, by way of national discontent, to be upset by any outcome of the elections, the party has been helped without making too much of an effort.
The fallout of the failure to come together by the opposition parties also impacts the current and future candidatures of the ticket holders for the opposition parties. One of the expectations of leadership is the ability to negotiate, maneuver and build consensus, if you seek to lead a nation as diverse as Nigeria. if you cannot do that at home, you are not likely to succeed in a football field of 80,000 screaming fans in different team colours.
If elections in Nigeria were decided on the articulate performances of candidates during elections debates, Governor Ibrahim Shekarau would be packing his bags out of the State House in Kano whilst his wife would be picking curtain fabrics by now.
If elections in Nigeria were won by the expectations of youth and a vibrant future generation, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu would be visiting an opticians and picking gold rimmed Presidential glasses. His VP canidate would be dusting up the master plan for re-creating the GTBank magic that has made him so famous and credible.
If elections in Nigeria were won by the expectations and prayers of a disciplined leadership and population, coerced or willingly, General Muhammadu Buhari would be taking one last look at his military uniform, starched or not, while Pastor Bakare would be planning one big revival service on the first Sunday after inauguration.
Elections in Nigeria are won by combining the good, the bad and the ugly sides that make up the fabric of Nigerian society, culture and diversity. These include everything that the Nigerian seeks to change and with nly one objective in mind, winning.
For being able to combine all of the dynamics in play, the PDP will hold the Presidency whilst most of the incumbents will hold the Governorship of their States. Babatunde Raji Fashola SAN will remain Governor of Lagos State as will most of his contemporaries.
President Goodluck Jonathan will remain President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria for at least, and I emphasize, at least another four years.
Time to prepare for 2015 and the road hereon will be very rocky and ever-changing.
What do you think?
