It is never advisable to bet all one has on the potential outcome of any elections in Nigeria. You may end up having to fight for bed space under one of the fly-overs somewhere near you.
It is however almost inconceivable that Babatunde Raji Fashola (SAN), current Governor of Lagos Stae will not win re-election on Tuesday 26th April 2011. You can almost bet your life on it but take a deep breath first.The results of the recent elections over the past weekends in Nigeria, starting with the National Assembly elections where the predictable happened and much of what transpired did not lead to any riots or regrettable fallouts.
We then moved on to the Presidential elections which seemingly was based on personality and the President retained his position. However, this led to some dramatic and scary actions particularly in the north of the country.
I had said we were in a lose lose situation with the Presidential elections. If the President had ‘lost’, what we are witnessing in the North would have occurred in the Deep South.
Convincing the locals on either side of the divide that either result was just and emerged from free and Fair elections would have been the challenge.
The question was always about how much loss Nigeria would face and be able to take in either case.
The dramatic manner in which the President ‘swept’ the South and particularly the South-West bar Osun State not only raised eyebrows but led many to think the hitherto unthinkable. A PDP ‘sweep’ of the South-West in the Governorship elections, where electons are due to hold?
Well, more amazing things have been known to happen. Obasanjo hoodwinked and took away the South-West from the Alliance for Democracy, predecessor to the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), in 2003 and that is part of folklore today.
It was not so much the fact that the President won across the South-West , bar Osun State, and the entire South. It was the manner and margins therein that he won by. Ensuring that his closest rival Gen. buhari never got a whiff of the required 25% of the votes in areas where the President won by a ‘landslide’.
Can this ‘history’ repeat itself in Lagos State on Tuesday?
Many, including myself, would argue that it was impossible, but we have all learnt that politics in Nigeria has its most beffudling moments in the darkest hours of the night. The morning after is simply a reflection of what may have occurred the night before.
Babatunde Raji Fashola would win Lagos with his eyes closed. I have been privileged to witness the current President say to an audience that it seemed Lagosians were satisfied with their governor. Along with a full hall, I managed not to get arrested for shouting a resounding “yes o!”
If we simply went by the plans highlighted by the candidates in Lagos at the Governorship debates held, Babatunde Raji Fashola need not bother to wake up until Wednesday the 27th of April to take a peek at his own picture smiling back at him.
However, voters must be careful of what has been known to be the impossible occurring in Lagos on Tuesday if they truly believe that BRF is their man.
If the regular turnout of BRF supporters in Lagos, such as this weekend’s events in places like his favourite football spots in Surulere, is anything to go by, it is difficult to see anything but a BRF win.
Lagos will survive anything. BRF or not, the people will move on, however without a second term for BRF, the conjectures and conspiracy theories will fly aimlessly arounf the regular watering holes. Did anyone sell out BRF? Did anyone sellout the Action Congress? Will Lagos continue to grow as Lagosians feel it has in the last four years? What next for the Action Congress if it lses the jewel in the crown? And on and on.
BRF has ‘succeeded’ not because of ‘his age but the age of his ideas’ to borrow from him, his now famous closing at one of the debates.
There was such distance between BRF and the other contenders that he had to stifle as many belly-laughs as protocol demanded during the debates.
Even those of us, kobokobos according to the natives, who claim Lagos for the sheer fact that this is where we grew up or were born and/or have lived most of our lives in though being indigenes of other places, electing BRF is not so much a vote against the party at the centre, the PDP, but a vote for one of ours who grew up with us in a Lagos we all remember as the most sophisticated city along the West African coastline.
A Lagos that we believe one of us can replicate as he has been trying to do for the last four years and can achieve or set on its path in the next four years.
Whatever happens in the North during the upcoming governorship elections may well be a reflection of the impact of the crisis that followed the victory of President Jonathan. it will be interesting to watch what happens in states where Gen. Buhari and the CPC did exceptionally well prior to the Presidential elections. Will voters be intimidated or will there be a backlash one way or the other? Thats for the North to decide, but in Lagos anything but a BRF win is hard to see happening.
A Lagos without BRF?...not likely. However
Eko o ni baje o!
What do you think?
